The latest trade figures from China show that its shipments to the US slowed sharply in November. Exports to the US were down 23% – the twelfth monthly decline in a row.
Another round of US tariffs on Chinese goods is soon due, and the failure as yet to resolve the matter is having an impact on US and global markets.
So it’s worth keeping an eye on a crucial deadline coming up which has the potential to further complicate global trade issues. The venerable World Trade Organization is about to face a crisis in its disputes resolution system. The WTO’s appeal “court”, which is the final arbiter on international trade disputes, is about to become unable to function.
The dispute resolution process has been described by former WTO director general Pascal Lamy as the WTO’s crown jewel, and is one of the busiest disputes resolution systems in the world.
Under WTO rules, three judges have to hear each case. But by December there will be only one judge left as the terms of two come to an end. There has been no agreement on a replacement. In fact, there is no agreement yet even on the process to do so.
Trade experts have warned that the disputes resolution system is now in danger of seizing up. The current US administration has made it clear it regards the WTO disputes system as prone to interpreting the trade rules in a way that creates new obligations for WTO members. In this they echo the views of previous administrations. An especial gripe is over the definition of whether or not a country is guilty of “dumping” – ie, selling goods abroad more cheaply that at home.
The imminent loss of the appeal function doesn’t mean the WTO will grind to a halt. But it is likely to be less effective. And that can’t be a good thing in a global economy that needs more stability, not less.